Paths Magazine

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FEBRUARY 28, 2025

By Angus Allan

The liberal policies of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau have haunted Canadian conservatives for years. The past few weeks have given rise to a new fear for the Tories, Canada’s conservative party, and that fear is… Donald Trump?

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party government entered 2025 with historically low approval ratings. An Angus Reid Institute poll from December 2024 showed a staggering 74 percent disapproval rating among respondents. Just six days later, Trudeau announced his intention to resign once a new leader is selected for the Liberal Party. When President Donald Trump took the Oath of Office on January 20th, Canadian Liberals were sinking in the polls as the Conservatives rose. This trend mirrors the decline in support for the Democratic Party in the United States, and for incumbent parties worldwide. Trump’s return has shaken up Canadian politics – and the prospects of the Liberal party — in unprecedented ways. High tariffs – a tax imposed on imports or exports – on a range of Canadian goods have worsened economic issues in the country; a crisis the Tories may be unable resolve. Amidst this, a rising star has appeared in Liberal leadership candidate Mark Carney, whose growing popularity challenges Pierre Poilievre’s campaign for prime minister.

President Trump follows a ‘shoot first, ask questions later’ geopolitical strategy. The President and his administration prefer initial brash and aggressive action to set the bar high in new deals before moderating demands later. On February 1st, Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt announced the White House’s plan to implement 25 percent tariffs on a wide variety of Canadian imports, including fruit and vegetables, dairy, tobacco, alcohol, plywood, and clothing, and an additional 10 percent tariff on energy imports.

Instead of bending to the Trump Administration’s wishes, this harsh move provoked Canadians across the political spectrum. Canadian politicians responded by initiating retaliatory tariffs and launching a “Buy Canadian” movement rejecting American products. On February 3rd, following strong Canadian reprisal, the Trump Administration backed down and declared a temporary pause on all American tariffs on the country. Yet soon after this announcement, on February 9th, the Trump Administration imposed 25 percent tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports, according to the Council on Foreign Relations. This move greatly impacted Canadian industry, as 25 percent of American steel imports come from Canada, per the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation. Furthermore, Canadian exports of steel and aluminum to the U.S. were valued at almost twenty billion dollars in 2023, according to Trading Economics. These tariffs have slashed profits and prompted layoffs for many Canadian companies.

Trump failed to assert dominance over Canada, as the capitulation of the temporary pause makes clear. Likewise, his doubling down in the form of steel and aluminum tariffs has only increased the rising anti-American — and to a degree, anti-conservative — sentiment among Canadians. While Justin Trudeau and his fellow Liberal politicians organized a swift response to Trump’s threats, Pierre Poilievre, leader of the Conservative opposition, was slow to comment. On February 3rd, Poilievre released a statement outlining the Conservative Party’s plan to combat Trump’s actions. The agenda focuses on reducing barriers to interior trade; however, it was quite similar to an existing Liberal policy, the Canadian Free Trade Agreement (CFTA) formed under Trudeau’s government in 2017. Signed by every province, with bipartisan support, the CFTA established a binding operation to reduce internal trade barriers. Poilievre’s knock-off of Liberal policies has captured the support of some Canadians. However, the political spotlight is shining on a different man: Mark Carney, former Governor of the Bank of Canada and the bane of Pierre Poilievre’s existence.

Four days before Trump’s inauguration in the States, Carney announced his campaign for the leadership of the Liberal Party of Canada. During his launch rally, Carney described his vision of “an even better Canada” and on February 20th posted his plan to “make Canada the strongest economy in the G7” on X. Carney’s ironic focus on ‘making Canada great again’ has a wide appeal to Canadians, especially moderates and Liberals who feel that neither Trudeau nor Poilievre adequately addressed economic issues like the housing crisis.

Carney’s anti-U.S. rhetoric and strong stance against President Trump’s tariffs hint at a wider Liberal plan to take advantage of Canadians’ concerns over a trade war– a strategy that has proven effective in bumping Carney’s ratings. According to a February poll conducted by Nanos Research for CTV News, Carney is highly favored by Canadians to not only lead his party but to negotiate with Trump. 40 percent of participants responded in favor of Mark Carney, while just 26 percent responded Pierre Poilievre regarding potential negotiations. Carney’s double-digit lead over the Conservative candidate indicates a shift in Canadian politics since the start of the second Trump presidency.

While it is likely that Mark Carney will win the Liberal Party’s leadership elections, the general election will ultimately be a toss-up. Regardless, Mark Carney and the Liberals have a much better chance at beating Poilievre’s Tories than they did just a month ago, thanks to Trump’s new economic policies.

Angus Allan can be reached at allan3@kenyon.edu

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